By Anyway Yotamu
The impact of the Russian war against Ukraine has brought serious economic challenges across Africa through trade disruptions, commodity price increases, and tighter financial conditions.
Analysts say the evidence of the impact of the war and its implications on food security in Africa is devastating, given that the continent first grappled with COVID-19 and the El-Nino induced drought which hit some parts of the continent, making direct trade exposure low.
Africa relies heavily on Ukraine and Russia for food and fertiliser imports and because of the ongoing war, the cost of these commodities has continued to skyrocket in several countries such as Zimbabwe and Zambia.
Zimbabwe’s main opposition Parliamentary chief whip, Edwin Mushoriwa, says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heavily affected trade in Africa.
“Russian’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war that has been raging between the two countries over the past two or so years has definitely had a negative effect on Africa in general and some other specific countries in particular. First and foremost, you are aware that Ukraine is one of the major countries that supplies grain in respect to wheat, agricultural inputs such as fertilizer in the global market and the disruption due to war has also made it difficult for some African countries in terms of the procurement of wheat and agricultural inputs and in other cases we’ve actually seen a rise in price of those commodities which has actually affected the poor citizenry of these countries,” Mushoriwa said.
He also highlighted the shrinking democratic space in African nations saying, democracy is under threat, where human abuse is rampant andelectoral fraud is growing faster than ever on the continent.
Furthermore, “The other aspect which I think is also crucial is that while the Russian-Ukraine war is raging, the international community is focusing on the Russian-Ukraine and to a certain extent Israel-Hamas wars and turning a blind eye to Africa in general but more specifically to countries where democracy is under threat, where human abuse is rampant, where electoral fraud is occurring,” Mushoriwa said. “I think it has now become the norm that African dictators naturally have actually been emboldened by the Russian-Ukraine war because no one now is paying attention to what they are doing But more importantly, especially when we then look at Central Africa and Western Africa, the presence of the Africa Corps (Wagner group) generally is not a good thing on the African continent.”
Their presence, their masonry attitudes and all the things that they are doing create chaos in Africa which allegedly benefits Russia to a certain extent because of it’s a paramilitary groupings with Russian connections, he added.
“It brings disunity, it brings disorder and wars in Africa at a time when Africa is supposed to be getting its act together for the common growth of the economies. So naturally, Africa in my view should be a rule-maker, not a rule-taker. But under these circumstances, Africa is actually suffering big time”, adds Mushoriwa.
According to the 2023 World Bank Report, the war has also driven up prices of oil, food and fertilizers globally. Simulations suggest that a 10% shock in oil, food and fertiliser prices induced by the war may reduce Africa’s annual GDP by $7 billion. Actual impacts are likely to be higher since oil, food and fertiliser prices increased by larger shares, at 40%, 18% and 55%, respectively, in 2022.
Global commodity price increases also prompted an increase in interest rates in high-income countries, which in turn triggered capital outflows, exchange rate depreciation and higher borrowing costs for many African countries. The magnitude of individual country impacts varies based on commodity dependence, financial openness, and domestic vulnerabilities.
The war may have exacerbated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the deterioration of Africa’s macroeconomic and social performance. The overlapping crises have slowed Africa’s development progress and risk long-term “scarring” effects. In 2022, 18 million new poor people were added to the 546 million Africans already living in poverty, and one out of five Africans faced high levels of food insecurity. Women and vulnerable groups also tend to be disproportionately impacted by shocks.
And in June this year (2024), Zimbabwe’s former Finance Minister Tendai Biti, scholar Dr Greg Mills and Ugandan Opposition leader Bobi Wine said Africa should stand up in supporting Ukraine’s peace initiative which is not only the right thing to do for Africans who value sovereignty and the rule of law, but it is also in their own self-interest.
As leaders from countries around the world gathered in Switzerland to seek a way to bring peace to Ukraine, now in the third year since Russia’s invasion, a summit communiqué has been drafted which is guided by key UN resolutions, to which 82 state (and six multinational) signatories representing more than 60% of global GDP have so far signed up.
“Ukraine is to be lauded for this initiative, which is aimed at building global momentum towards a peaceful resolution of a conflict that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions, the majority of them women and children. The commitment to upholding international law, including the UN Charter, is essential to finding a resolution to this conflict,” they stated.
The three African political figures added that Africa should wholeheartedly unite in condemning Russian war against Ukraine.
“We reaffirm our commitment to refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognized borders, including territorial waters, and the resolution of disputes through peaceful means as principles of international law,”they stated.
Moreso, “The violation of territorial sovereignty by force is to be opposed by all who value the rule of law, international agreements and the right of countries to co-exist in peace. Africa’s experience of colonisationmakes it acutely aware of the damage such aggression causes to societies and people. Even when the guns fall silent and peace is made at the negotiating table, the trauma of oppression persists, sometimes over generations.”
They stated that Africans have a voice to use and rich experience that they can bring to bear and should not relegate themselves to the role of mere spectators in the global drama.
“There is a particular self-interest in sovereign protection for Africa, where many countries lack the means to be able to govern colonial borders and some the means to be able to govern their own territories. As Martin Niemöller, the German theologian, famously said about the risks of not speaking out: ‘First they came for the Communists. And I did not speak out, Because I was not a Communist; Then they came for the Socialists. And I did not speak out, Because I was not a Socialist; Then they came for the trade unionists. And I did not speak out, Because I was not a trade unionist; Then they came for the Jews. And I did not speak out, Because I was not a Jew; Then they came for me. And there was no one left, to speak out for me’,” they stated.
The statement from the summit goes further than sovereignty by addressing the critical issue of global food security, they said, adding that “the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on the costs of basic foodstuffs has been felt by African countries, many of which are presently enduring droughts and low harvests of their own”.
They further noted that Africa is today home to the majority of the world’s poor as the continent’s per capita income is just 15% of the global average, while the number of sub-Saharan Africans living in poverty has risen to 490 million, representing more than 40% of the continent’s people and two-thirds of the global total.
“Deliberate attacks on ports and vessels that are involved in the transportation of essential foodstuffs must be condemned. We cannot live in a world where the starvation of distant people becomes weaponised by aggressors seeking to take territory by force. In addition, the call for the safeguarding of nuclear energy and nuclear installations is of paramount importance. Africa has no nuclear weapons, but it is likely to suffer immensely in the event of a nuclear war. Africans must also lend their support to the statement’s call for compassion and human rights: “All deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainian children, and all other Ukrainian civilians who were unlawfully detained, must be returned to Ukraine,” they stated.
“The ending of this war, as well as the unchecked military aggression in Sudan and the terrible conflict engulfing the Middle East, is of the utmost concern to Africans. There are other costs, not least in the diversion of aid from African conflicts and humanitarian needs, and the militarisation of foreign policies towards the continent. The states that have signed the communique so far are among the most generous contributors to African development, having provided more than $30 billion in aid to Africa since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.”
Ukraine’s outgoing foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, who recently resigned from government, said at the Peace Summit in Switzerland:
“War must be won both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Ukraine can learn from Africa in how to make and win the peace. And we can support each other in backing a fair and just international system in which military might is not automatically right.”
There is no balance to be struck between good and evil, whether in Africa or in Ukraine. The African leaders who seek to avoid making this choice and who preach “whataboutism” in so doing do not represent the interests of more than two-thirds of the continent’s people who are living in poverty.